AFC Fylde vs Carlisle
National League, England · 2026-09-29 · 20:45 CET
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DLLWWThe score model made a Carlisle win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Fylde 1.54 – 1.83 Carlisle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Fylde win | 32.8% | 41.2% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 24.2% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Carlisle win | 44.8% | 34.6% | +10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.5% | 45.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 67.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 44.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Fylde 29.9 / Carlisle 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.