Wealdstone vs Gateshead
National League, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
LLWLW
LLLLLThe score model made a Wealdstone win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wealdstone 1.82 – 1.36 Gateshead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone win | 48.4% | 54.8% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.1% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Gateshead win | 28.7% | 21.1% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 56.3% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 35.5% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 56.3% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.8% | 38.2% | +5.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wealdstone 58.9 / Gateshead 59.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Wealdstone vs Gateshead in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.