Boston Utd vs AFC Fylde
National League, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
LLLWW
LWLWWThe score model made a Boston Utd win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boston Utd 1.70 – 1.40 AFC Fylde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Utd win | 44.7% | 37.5% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 25.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| AFC Fylde win | 31.6% | 37.2% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 62.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 41.6% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 64.6% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 42.1% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boston Utd 49.5 / AFC Fylde 29 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Boston Utd vs AFC Fylde in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.