Chelmsford vs Ebbsfleet
National League South, England · 2026-11-09 · 20:45 CET
DWWLW
WWLWWThe score model makes an Ebbsfleet win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.3% vs 60.6% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chelmsford 1.26 – 1.50 Ebbsfleet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford win | 32.4% | 25.8% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.2% | -1.0% |
| Ebbsfleet win | 43.4% | 49.0% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 57.1% | -5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 36.5% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 58.4% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 39.4% | -6.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chelmsford 61 / Ebbsfleet 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chelmsford vs Ebbsfleet in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.