Weston-super-Mare vs Braintree
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DLLLL
LLLWWThe score model makes a Weston-super-Mare win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Braintree win — 28.1% vs 18.7% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Weston-super-Mare 1.59 – 1.15 Braintree.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weston-super-Mare win | 47.9% | 58.3% | -10.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 23.0% | +0.9% |
| Braintree win | 28.1% | 18.7% | +9.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 57.0% | -5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 36.5% | -7.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 55.1% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 39.6% | -2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Weston-super-Mare 60 / Braintree 22.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Weston-super-Mare vs Braintree in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.