Slough vs Walton & Hersham
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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WWLLLThe score model makes a Slough win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.4% vs 52.7% implied (+11.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slough 1.85 – 1.16 Walton & Hersham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slough win | 53.8% | 43.9% | +9.9% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 24.0% | -2.2% |
| Walton & Hersham win | 24.3% | 32.1% | -7.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 66.6% | -8.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 47.3% | -11.7% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 68.2% | -10.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 46.5% | -9.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Slough 61.3 / Walton & Hersham 13.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Slough vs Walton & Hersham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.