Hemel Hempstead vs Maidstone
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DLLDL
WWDLWThe score model makes a Maidstone win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.6% vs 66.2% implied (+11.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hemel Hempstead 1.02 – 1.39 Maidstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hemel Hempstead win | 28.1% | 30.0% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.5% | -0.6% |
| Maidstone win | 46.0% | 43.5% | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 53.8% | -10.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 33.8% | -11.4% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 57.3% | -9.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 37.3% | -9.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hemel Hempstead 60.4 / Maidstone 58.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hemel Hempstead vs Maidstone in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.