Hampton & Richmond vs Maidenhead
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
LLDLL
LLLDDThe score model makes a Maidenhead win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.6% vs 62.0% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hampton & Richmond 1.07 – 1.66 Maidenhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hampton & Richmond win | 25.0% | 25.5% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.4% | -2.0% |
| Maidenhead win | 51.6% | 49.1% | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 55.1% | -3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 34.7% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 56.8% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 38.0% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hampton & Richmond 61.4 / Maidenhead 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hampton & Richmond vs Maidenhead in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.