Folkestone vs Truro
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DWWLD
DWWWWThe score model makes a Truro win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.3% vs 61.8% implied (+12.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Folkestone 1.23 – 1.34 Truro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Folkestone win | 34.6% | 27.9% | +6.7% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.1% | +0.4% |
| Truro win | 39.9% | 47.0% | -7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 59.2% | -11.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.8% | 38.2% | -12.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 60.6% | -8.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 41.2% | -8.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Folkestone 14.7 / Truro 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Folkestone vs Truro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.