Farnham vs Tonbridge
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
LWWLW
WWDWLThe score model makes a Farnham win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Farnham win — 55.5% vs 39.9% implied (+15.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Farnham 1.91 – 1.15 Tonbridge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farnham win | 55.5% | 39.9% | +15.6% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 25.4% | -4.0% |
| Tonbridge win | 23.1% | 34.8% | -11.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 61.6% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.6% | 41.1% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 63.7% | -5.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 42.3% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Farnham 13.7 / Tonbridge 61.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Farnham vs Tonbridge in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.