Ebbsfleet vs Chesham
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DWWLW
LLLLDThe score model makes an Ebbsfleet win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 56.8% vs 53.6% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ebbsfleet 2.42 – 0.93 Chesham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet win | 70.6% | 68.4% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 16.4% | 18.5% | -2.0% |
| Chesham win | 13.0% | 13.1% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 66.0% | -0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.2% | 46.4% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 56.5% | -1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 46.4% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ebbsfleet 42 / Chesham 51.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ebbsfleet vs Chesham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.