Chelmsford vs Farnborough
National League South, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WDWWL
WLWLLThe score model makes a Chelmsford win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 62.6% vs 53.6% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chelmsford 2.07 – 1.03 Farnborough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford win | 61.7% | 63.5% | -1.8% |
| Draw | 19.9% | 20.2% | -0.3% |
| Farnborough win | 18.5% | 16.4% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 66.3% | -6.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 46.4% | -9.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 60.4% | -4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chelmsford 60.6 / Farnborough 61.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chelmsford vs Farnborough in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.