Darlington vs Oxford City
National League North, England · 2026-11-10 · 20:45 CET
DLWLL
DWDWLThe score model makes a Darlington win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.3% vs 59.7% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Darlington 1.43 – 1.37 Oxford City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darlington win | 39.1% | 30.0% | +9.1% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 24.9% | -0.6% |
| Oxford City win | 36.5% | 45.0% | -8.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 60.7% | -7.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 40.3% | -9.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 63.3% | -7.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 41.9% | -5.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Darlington 59.9 / Oxford City 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Darlington vs Oxford City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.