South Shields vs Southport
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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DLLDLThe score model makes a South Shields win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.2% vs 56.1% implied (+14.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: South Shields 1.90 – 0.85 Southport.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields win | 62.5% | 67.9% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 20.9% | 18.7% | +2.2% |
| Southport win | 16.6% | 13.4% | +3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 64.0% | -12.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 43.9% | -14.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 55.2% | -6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 44.2% | -7.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: South Shields 58.1 / Southport 59.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open South Shields vs Southport in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.