Scarborough vs Buxton
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DLWLL
LDWWWThe score model makes a Scarborough win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.0% vs 63.7% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Scarborough 1.39 – 1.38 Buxton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough win | 37.9% | 32.7% | +5.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.2% | -1.5% |
| Buxton win | 37.5% | 41.2% | -3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 56.5% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 36.3% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 59.9% | -4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 39.2% | -3.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Scarborough 59.4 / Buxton 61.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Scarborough vs Buxton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.