King’s Lynn vs Spennymoor
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WDDLW
DLLLWThe score model makes a King’s Lynn win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.9% vs 62.8% implied (+8.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: King’s Lynn 1.61 – 1.11 Spennymoor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| King’s Lynn win | 49.5% | 54.3% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.1% | -0.1% |
| Spennymoor win | 26.5% | 21.6% | +4.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 57.3% | -6.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 37.2% | -8.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 57.1% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 39.8% | -7.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: King’s Lynn 60.5 / Spennymoor 60.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open King’s Lynn vs Spennymoor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.