Hednesford vs Morecambe
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WWWLW
DLWWWThe score model makes a Morecambe win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.5% vs 67.2% implied (+9.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hednesford 1.22 – 1.24 Morecambe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hednesford win | 36.4% | 36.9% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.7% | -0.4% |
| Morecambe win | 37.3% | 36.4% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 52.7% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 32.8% | -9.3% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 56.8% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 36.9% | -7.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hednesford 13.7 / Morecambe 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hednesford vs Morecambe in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.