Brackley Town vs Chester
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WLLDW
WWLWLThe score model makes a Chester win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.8% vs 66.4% implied (+12.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brackley Town 1.10 – 1.25 Chester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brackley Town win | 32.8% | 23.8% | +9.0% |
| Draw | 26.9% | 25.4% | +1.5% |
| Chester win | 40.2% | 50.7% | -10.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 53.2% | -11.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 33.6% | -12.4% |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 54.8% | -7.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 37.0% | -7.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Brackley Town 35.9 / Chester 59.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brackley Town vs Chester in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.