AFC Telford vs Spalding United
National League North, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
LWDWW
LLLDWThe score model makes an AFC Telford win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.6% vs 65.3% implied (+9.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Telford 1.45 – 1.11 Spalding United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Telford win | 45.4% | 44.4% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.6% | -0.3% |
| Spalding United win | 29.3% | 30.0% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 55.1% | -8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 34.7% | -9.3% |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 58.0% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 38.5% | -7.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: AFC Telford 41.4 / Spalding United 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AFC Telford vs Spalding United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.