South Shields vs Buxton
National League North, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
LLWWW
LDWWWThe score model made a South Shields win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: South Shields 1.70 – 1.30 Buxton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields win | 47.2% | 45.3% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Buxton win | 29.5% | 30.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 61.7% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 41.1% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 63.1% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 43.2% | -1.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: South Shields 58 / Buxton 61.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open South Shields vs Buxton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.