Chester vs Worksop
National League North, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
WWLWL
WDDWLThe score model made a Chester win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chester 1.62 – 0.97 Worksop.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester win | 52.7% | 56.7% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 23.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Worksop win | 23.0% | 19.4% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 52.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 32.2% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 52.0% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 36.2% | -3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chester 60.6 / Worksop 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chester vs Worksop in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.