Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford
National League North, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
DDLWW
DLLWWThe score model made a Merthyr Town win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 77%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Merthyr Town 2.15 – 1.91 AFC Telford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town win | 44.5% | 36.6% | +7.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 25.8% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| AFC Telford win | 35.3% | 37.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.1% | 61.5% | +15.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57.9% | 41.3% | +16.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 75.2% | 64.4% | +10.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.2% | 42.4% | +0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Merthyr Town 31.4 / AFC Telford 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.