Hereford vs Radcliffe
National League North, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
WDWWW
WLLLWThe score model made a Hereford win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hereford 1.85 – 1.37 Radcliffe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford win | 48.9% | 46.2% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 26.1% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Radcliffe win | 28.7% | 27.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 57.7% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.2% | 37.2% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 59.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 39.4% | -0.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hereford 57.9 / Radcliffe 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.