Spennymoor vs Merthyr Town
National League North, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LLDLL
DDLWWThe score model made a Spennymoor win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spennymoor 1.97 – 1.75 Merthyr Town.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spennymoor win | 43.6% | 46.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 25.8% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Merthyr Town win | 35.1% | 28.1% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | 60.2% | +11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.0% | 40.1% | +10.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 71.0% | 62.2% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.7% | 41.5% | +3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spennymoor 57.5 / Merthyr Town 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.