Buxton vs Hereford
National League North, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
LWWLW
WDWWWThe score model made a Buxton win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Buxton 1.94 – 1.13 Hereford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buxton win | 56.2% | 52.2% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 24.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Hereford win | 21.9% | 23.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 58.2% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 37.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 58.7% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 40.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Buxton 58.8 / Hereford 57.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.