Rochdale vs Swindon
League Two, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
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WLLDLThe score model made a Swindon win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rochdale 1.37 – 1.48 Swindon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale win | 34.8% | 41.7% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Swindon win | 39.9% | 31.6% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 54.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 34.3% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 58.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 38.6% | +2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rochdale 10.3 / Swindon 57.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.