Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
League Two, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
DWWLL
LWDDWThe score model made a Grimsby win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grimsby 1.81 – 0.83 Shrewsbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 60.5% | 55.7% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Shrewsbury win | 16.6% | 20.1% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 52.9% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 31.9% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 53.4% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 36.0% | +4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grimsby 58.9 / Shrewsbury 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.