Crewe vs Bristol Rovers
League Two, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
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WLLWLThe score model made a Crewe win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crewe 1.42 – 1.10 Bristol Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 44.2% | 31.6% | +12.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Bristol Rovers win | 29.0% | 41.0% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 51.7% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 31.0% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 56.6% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 35.4% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crewe 57.9 / Bristol Rovers 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.