Chesterfield vs Tranmere
League Two, England · 2026-10-03 · 13:30 CET
DWWLW
WLDDLThe score model made a Chesterfield win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chesterfield 1.87 – 0.93 Tranmere.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 59.3% | 55.7% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.6% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Tranmere win | 18.2% | 20.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 56.7% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 36.0% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 56.3% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 38.8% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chesterfield 50 / Tranmere 58 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.