Reading vs Bradford City
League One, England · 2026-10-03 · 16:00 CET
WLWDD
LWWWDThe score model made a Reading win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Reading 1.27 – 1.04 Bradford City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 41.8% | 44.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 28.4% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Bradford City win | 30.2% | 27.1% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 46.6% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 26.8% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 51.6% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 33.3% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Reading 54.5 / Bradford City 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.