Oxford Utd vs Reading
League One, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
DWDWL
DLLDWThe score model makes an Oxford Utd win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oxford Utd 1.67 – 1.44 Reading.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd win | 43.3% | — | — |
| Draw | 23.3% | — | — |
| Reading win | 33.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oxford Utd 13.3 / Reading 53.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.