Derby vs Bolton
Championship, England · 2026-11-06 · 21:00 CET
DLLDL
LWDLLThe score model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 58.4% vs 54.5% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Derby 1.64 – 1.39 Bolton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 43.0% | 42.3% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.5% | -1.9% |
| Bolton win | 32.4% | 31.2% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 54.5% | +3.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 33.9% | +2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 58.4% | +2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 38.0% | -1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Derby 50.8 / Bolton 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Derby vs Bolton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.