Burnley vs Derby
Championship, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
DWDLL
DDLLDThe score model made a Burnley win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burnley 1.66 – 0.84 Derby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 56.2% | 51.4% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.8% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Derby win | 18.2% | 22.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 52.3% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 31.6% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 54.4% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 35.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burnley 23.6 / Derby 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Burnley vs Derby in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.