Derby vs Cardiff
Championship, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LDLWL
DDLLDThe score model made a Derby win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Derby 1.70 – 0.96 Cardiff.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 54.3% | 46.3% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.2% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Cardiff win | 20.6% | 26.5% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 50.7% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 30.2% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 54.8% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 34.2% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Derby 45.3 / Cardiff 26.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.