Charlton vs Derby
Championship, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
WWDLD
DLWLLThe score model made a Derby win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Charlton 1.03 – 1.14 Derby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 32.0% | 34.6% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 30.0% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Derby win | 37.6% | 35.4% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 43.9% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% | 24.5% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 50.9% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 30.2% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Charlton 30.6 / Derby 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.