Randers FC vs Nordsjaelland
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-11-08 · 16:00 CET
LLDLL
LDDDLThe score model makes a Nordsjaelland win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.5% vs 53.4% implied (+13.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Randers FC 1.17 – 1.75 Nordsjaelland.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC win | 24.3% | 21.5% | +2.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 22.2% | +4.0% |
| Nordsjaelland win | 49.6% | 56.3% | -6.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 66.5% | -10.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.5% | 46.6% | -13.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 65.3% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 46.0% | -11.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Randers FC 38.3 / Nordsjaelland 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Randers FC vs Nordsjaelland in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.