Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-11-08 · 18:00 CET
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DWLWLThe score model makes a Midtjylland win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sonderjyske win — 13.9% vs 10.6% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Midtjylland 2.47 – 1.08 Sonderjyske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland win | 66.9% | 72.7% | -5.8% |
| Draw | 19.2% | 16.6% | +2.6% |
| Sonderjyske win | 13.9% | 10.6% | +3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Midtjylland 38.4 / Sonderjyske 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.