Aarhus vs Horsens
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
DWDWL
DDDWLThe score model makes an Aarhus win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 65.5% vs 56.9% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarhus 1.95 – 1.39 Horsens.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus win | 49.5% | 59.4% | -9.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 22.1% | +2.1% |
| Horsens win | 26.2% | 18.5% | +7.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 59.2% | +5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 38.5% | +4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 56.9% | +8.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 40.9% | -1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Aarhus 39.2 / Horsens 12.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Aarhus vs Horsens in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.