Fredericia vs Hillerod
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-11-19 · 19:00 CET
WWLWL
LLWLWThe score model makes a Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.1% vs 59.2% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredericia 2.12 – 0.92 Hillerod.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericia win | 64.4% | 70.9% | -6.4% |
| Draw | 20.9% | 17.1% | +3.7% |
| Hillerod win | 14.7% | 12.0% | +2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 61.4% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 40.8% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 50.0% | +3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 42.1% | -0.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Fredericia 21 / Hillerod 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fredericia vs Hillerod in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.