Hvidovre IF vs Aarhus Fremad
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-11-09 · 19:00 CET
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LLDDWThe score model makes a Hvidovre IF win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.8% vs 63.3% implied (+10.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hvidovre IF 1.46 – 1.13 Aarhus Fremad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hvidovre IF win | 43.8% | 46.8% | -3.0% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 25.6% | +2.2% |
| Aarhus Fremad win | 28.4% | 27.6% | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 57.2% | -9.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 36.7% | -10.5% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 59.2% | -6.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 38.7% | -4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hvidovre IF 35.5 / Aarhus Fremad 29.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hvidovre IF vs Aarhus Fremad in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.