Hillerod vs Kolding IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-11-07 · 13:00 CET
DLLWL
DDWLWThe score model makes a Hillerod win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.6% vs 63.0% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hillerod 1.32 – 1.21 Kolding IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillerod win | 38.4% | 30.1% | +8.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 27.2% | +1.4% |
| Kolding IF win | 33.0% | 42.7% | -9.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 54.1% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 33.8% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 58.3% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 37.0% | -9.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hillerod 38.3 / Kolding IF 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hillerod vs Kolding IF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.