Aalborg vs Fredericia
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
LWWWD
LWWDDThe score model makes an Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.9% vs 59.2% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalborg 1.35 – 1.59 Fredericia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalborg win | 32.8% | 30.6% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.9% | -1.9% |
| Fredericia win | 43.1% | 43.5% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 60.0% | -3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 39.2% | -5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 62.3% | -3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 40.8% | -10.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalborg 27 / Fredericia 13.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.