Teplice vs FK Pardubice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-08 · 13:00 CET
WDLDW
WLWWLThe score model makes a Teplice win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Teplice win — 44.7% vs 37.7% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Teplice 1.54 – 1.17 FK Pardubice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice win | 44.7% | 37.7% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.8% | -0.3% |
| FK Pardubice win | 27.7% | 34.5% | -6.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 53.3% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 32.7% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 58.1% | -2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 36.0% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Teplice 44.7 / FK Pardubice 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Teplice vs FK Pardubice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.