Plzen vs Sparta Prague
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-08 · 18:00 CET
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WWDWDThe score model makes a Sparta Prague win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sparta Prague win — 43.0% vs 35.5% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plzen 1.39 – 1.66 Sparta Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen win | 31.1% | 38.0% | -6.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.5% | -0.6% |
| Sparta Prague win | 43.0% | 35.5% | +7.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 56.7% | +2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 35.5% | +1.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 60.2% | +1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 38.6% | +3.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Plzen 44.9 / Sparta Prague 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Plzen vs Sparta Prague in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.