Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-08 · 15:00 CET
DWLWL
LLWDWThe score model makes a Jablonec win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.0% vs 62.0% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jablonec 1.69 – 1.22 Mlada Boleslav.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jablonec win | 47.1% | 50.3% | -3.2% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.4% | +0.8% |
| Mlada Boleslav win | 26.7% | 24.3% | +2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 56.8% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.2% | 36.0% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 58.7% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 38.0% | -4.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Jablonec 44.7 / Mlada Boleslav 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.