Zapy vs Chrudim
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
DLWLD
DWWLWThe score model makes a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 76%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 62.2% vs 51.6% implied (+10.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zapy 2.93 – 1.06 Chrudim.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zapy win | 75.1% | 72.9% | +2.2% |
| Draw | 14.7% | 16.6% | -2.0% |
| Chrudim win | 10.3% | 10.4% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.0% | 66.1% | +10.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.5% | 46.6% | +9.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 51.6% | +10.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.3% | 46.0% | +5.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Zapy 45.4 / Chrudim 11.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Zapy vs Chrudim in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.