Varnsdorf vs Teplice B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a Varnsdorf win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 68.8% vs 63.5% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnsdorf 2.04 – 1.53 Teplice B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varnsdorf win | 48.9% | 53.3% | -4.3% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.7% | -0.2% |
| Teplice B win | 28.5% | 24.0% | +4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% | 64.2% | +5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.9% | 43.8% | +4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 68.8% | 63.5% | +5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 44.4% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Varnsdorf 30.5 / Teplice B 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Varnsdorf vs Teplice B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.