Jablonec B vs Benatky n. Jiz.
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-08 · 10:15 CET
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WDDDDThe score model makes a Jablonec B win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.8% vs 56.2% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jablonec B 1.72 – 1.24 Benatky n. Jiz..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jablonec B win | 48.0% | 50.3% | -2.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 22.9% | +2.3% |
| Benatky n. Jiz. win | 26.8% | 26.8% | +0.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 65.0% | -8.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | 43.8% | -9.6% |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 64.8% | -5.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 44.7% | -7.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Jablonec B 45.4 / Benatky n. Jiz. 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jablonec B vs Benatky n. Jiz. in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.