Mlada Boleslav B vs Pardubice B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-07 · 10:15 CET
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WLWWLThe score model makes a Mlada Boleslav B win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 60.6% vs 53.1% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav B 1.82 – 1.37 Pardubice B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav B win | 47.5% | 42.9% | +4.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 23.5% | +0.8% |
| Pardubice B win | 28.3% | 33.7% | -5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 67.2% | -5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 46.9% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 68.2% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 47.0% | -5.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Mlada Boleslav B 45.4 / Pardubice B 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mlada Boleslav B vs Pardubice B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.