Varnsdorf vs Liberec B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-04 · 16:00 CET
DLDDW
LLLDLThe score model made a Varnsdorf win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 79%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnsdorf 2.18 – 2.03 Liberec B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varnsdorf win | 42.6% | 66.2% | -23.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.5% | 18.1% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Liberec B win | 36.9% | 15.7% | +21.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.2% | 71.2% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60.8% | 52.2% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 77.4% | 63.8% | +13.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 88.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 62.1% | 49.9% | +12.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varnsdorf 25.3 / Liberec B 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.